Global Oil Demand to Peak by 2030, Says IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed Tuesday that global oil demand is expected to reach its peak by the end of this decade, plateauing at around 105.5 million barrels per day in 2029 before experiencing a slight decline in 2030.

Despite geopolitical tensions and calls for increased drilling, notably from U.S. President Donald Trump, the IEA maintains that the world is on track for a demand peak. The agency attributes this shift to slowing economic growth, rising electric vehicle adoption, and a broader transition in the energy and transport sectors.

While demand is projected to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030, the pace is expected to slow significantly, with only marginal increases after 2026. Meanwhile, global oil supply is forecast to outpace demand, ensuring a well-supplied market barring major disruptions.

The IEA’s outlook signals a turning point in the oil era, as structural changes reshape the global energy landscape.